Rss Feed
E-mail
This weekend see’s the F1 circuit visit the first of two new tracks this season. Valencia may be classed a street race but with newly laid tarmac one of the highest top speeds on the calendar, it’s not going to be a Monaco style street track. The talk from the teams is this will be similar to Canada, with a set-up not much different to Hockenheim.
Normally in the build up to a race weekend I take a look through the history books, check out recent form and build up a picture of how things may pan out. Obviously this time around I can only use recent form as a measure of what may happen but this is something I use very loosely. In fact recent form in F1 can often be misleading and is one of the ‘errors’ I look to take advantage of when scouting the odds. Pat Symonds (the brains at Renault) made a great comment in his race preview when asked what he thinks the pecking order is. Read it here. The media and some F1 fans are often far to fickle when it comes to changes in the pecking order. After the French GP it was all "Ferrari have the fastest car", then when McLaren went and won the next two races it was "McLaren have the fastest car" - then Massa showed the Ferrari was very quick in Hungary and everyone gets all confused about who has the fastest car. In reality the performance of the car depends on a lot of factors (downforce levels required, tyres used, brake usage, did the driver have a skin full last night?) and things will chop and change. What you should look at is the general trend over a number of races and that’s something I try to do with a couple of excel sheets I use to collect data.
I will be entering very few positions before the weekend starts on Friday with the practice sessions. Usually practice sessions can be taken with a pinch of salt but this weekend they will play a crucial role as teams try to dial in their set-ups.
At first look you would have to say the McLarens look favourite for pole, with Massa (still can’t believe he nailed Monaco pole) likely to be in the hunt as well. Kimi needs to improve his qualy performances but I think he would still be happy with anything on the front two rows as long as he can carry more fuel. Could we see some low fuel runs from the likes of Renault and Toyota? Nobody seems to want to take that gamble this year – maybe because the safety car rules mean you don't want to be caught short on fuel, but this is a home track for Alonso and we all know what they tried in Barcelona.
As for the race I'm going to stay away from this market for the moment. The only thing catching my eye is Kimi at 5.1 but there’s too much risk involved. There’s a high chance of a safety car around a track like this which could shuffle the order at anytime in the race. Although it doesn’t make for a great result (an artificial winner because of a safety car) it would be nice to see one of the 999/1 runners come in first!
All of this probably sounds a bit vague and that's intentional. I made the mistake last race of looking for something which wasn't there and I paid the price. It's not just me being cautious though. A quick look on oddschecker will show only half the bookie's have put their odds up (at time of writing) when they usually have them ready be now. This is a risky race but with higher risk hopefully will come higher reward.
Normally in the build up to a race weekend I take a look through the history books, check out recent form and build up a picture of how things may pan out. Obviously this time around I can only use recent form as a measure of what may happen but this is something I use very loosely. In fact recent form in F1 can often be misleading and is one of the ‘errors’ I look to take advantage of when scouting the odds. Pat Symonds (the brains at Renault) made a great comment in his race preview when asked what he thinks the pecking order is. Read it here. The media and some F1 fans are often far to fickle when it comes to changes in the pecking order. After the French GP it was all "Ferrari have the fastest car", then when McLaren went and won the next two races it was "McLaren have the fastest car" - then Massa showed the Ferrari was very quick in Hungary and everyone gets all confused about who has the fastest car. In reality the performance of the car depends on a lot of factors (downforce levels required, tyres used, brake usage, did the driver have a skin full last night?) and things will chop and change. What you should look at is the general trend over a number of races and that’s something I try to do with a couple of excel sheets I use to collect data.
I will be entering very few positions before the weekend starts on Friday with the practice sessions. Usually practice sessions can be taken with a pinch of salt but this weekend they will play a crucial role as teams try to dial in their set-ups.
At first look you would have to say the McLarens look favourite for pole, with Massa (still can’t believe he nailed Monaco pole) likely to be in the hunt as well. Kimi needs to improve his qualy performances but I think he would still be happy with anything on the front two rows as long as he can carry more fuel. Could we see some low fuel runs from the likes of Renault and Toyota? Nobody seems to want to take that gamble this year – maybe because the safety car rules mean you don't want to be caught short on fuel, but this is a home track for Alonso and we all know what they tried in Barcelona.
As for the race I'm going to stay away from this market for the moment. The only thing catching my eye is Kimi at 5.1 but there’s too much risk involved. There’s a high chance of a safety car around a track like this which could shuffle the order at anytime in the race. Although it doesn’t make for a great result (an artificial winner because of a safety car) it would be nice to see one of the 999/1 runners come in first!
All of this probably sounds a bit vague and that's intentional. I made the mistake last race of looking for something which wasn't there and I paid the price. It's not just me being cautious though. A quick look on oddschecker will show only half the bookie's have put their odds up (at time of writing) when they usually have them ready be now. This is a risky race but with higher risk hopefully will come higher reward.
Knowing what was wrong and correcting it.
1 Comments Published by John on Sunday, August 3, 2008 at 3:46 PM.
I've been looking at why I made a loss in Qualy for the Hungarian GP and have decided it was down to looking for opportunities that just weren't there. Yes I could have taken a profit so a bit of greed crept in as well but let me explain what I mean.
With F1 being the only sport I trade the event's come around every 2 weeks or so. In between races I don't trade any other event and with only 18 races in a season I feel the need to trade on each and everyone of them, making as much as possible in the progress.
If for example there was a race each week I would have been more inclined to keep my book at the small green I had managed before qualy. There's was not much about and I had no real clear idea's, so knowing I only had to wait 1 week for another chance may have caused me to avoid looking for a bigger win. There is a 3 week break until Valencia which is a long period to wait. Add to this the fact it's a new track so my stakes will be smaller and thus likely a lower return and I will be away for the following race, it will be about 7 weeks before I can really get back into trading F1 properly. With that thought in the back of my mind I wanted to get in a good win - which of course caused me to be a bit greedy and lose.
The good news is the football season will be kicking off and I can concentrate on my new challenge. Hopefully having another sport to trade in between the breaks will help me avoid this kind of mentality in the future. With football there are so many games played you can afford to leave the ones which you don't find any opportunities in. With more opportunities you also don't need to be greedy - just take what you can as the next chance won't be far away.
As for the race today, I'm pleased to say I learnt from yesterdays mistakes and made enough to put me back in profit for the weekend. It's tempting to look for one trade that can win you back a loss in one go but I avoided the temptation and just took every penny I could.
I've said it many times before and I stick by opinion that no driver should be much shorter than evens before a race. Maybe on the odd occasion such as when Schumacher had won a number of races in a row and nobody could touch Ferrari it could be justified - but not in the current situation where the teams are close and the current safety car rules can change a race. I had a lay on Lewis @ 1.39 for a number of reasons - Ferrari I thought would have the better race pace, Heikki may have more fuel if Ferrari didn't have the pace and in yesterdays GP2 race the pole sitter got swamped into the first corner. Thinking about I maybe should have backed Massa to lead 1st lap @ 30+ but then hindsight is a great thing.
I greened up after the first round of stops as it looked like it would be close for the second stops. I needn't have done it though because a puncture for Lewis put an end to his race win hopes and it was Massa's for the taking. I feel sorry for Massa because he drove a great race and deserved a win but it was his engine failure which further increased my winnings. After everyone's pitted for the final time I will sometimes make a small lay if the odds are under 1.1. The small lay has little impact on my overall book so if doesn't come off I hardly notice it, but occasionally it will pay off with a nice return.
I traded 5 of the markets today and made a profit from all of them so it's put me in a good mood for the break that's now coming up. I mainly have Timo Glock to thank for this who put in a great performance all weekend and made me profits on points and podium places.
As for the this season's drivers championship it seems like nobody wants to win it! A couple of weeks ago I said Lewis looked like he would go on to claim it but between him, Massa and Kimi or wouldn't like to say who has the best chance now.
With the 3 week break I will also have a break from this section of my blog so don't expect many updates (if any at all). I may do a kind of season review post from a betting perspective but it all depends on how much spare time I can find.
I'm now going to find some value in football, if there is such a thing.
With F1 being the only sport I trade the event's come around every 2 weeks or so. In between races I don't trade any other event and with only 18 races in a season I feel the need to trade on each and everyone of them, making as much as possible in the progress.
If for example there was a race each week I would have been more inclined to keep my book at the small green I had managed before qualy. There's was not much about and I had no real clear idea's, so knowing I only had to wait 1 week for another chance may have caused me to avoid looking for a bigger win. There is a 3 week break until Valencia which is a long period to wait. Add to this the fact it's a new track so my stakes will be smaller and thus likely a lower return and I will be away for the following race, it will be about 7 weeks before I can really get back into trading F1 properly. With that thought in the back of my mind I wanted to get in a good win - which of course caused me to be a bit greedy and lose.
The good news is the football season will be kicking off and I can concentrate on my new challenge. Hopefully having another sport to trade in between the breaks will help me avoid this kind of mentality in the future. With football there are so many games played you can afford to leave the ones which you don't find any opportunities in. With more opportunities you also don't need to be greedy - just take what you can as the next chance won't be far away.
As for the race today, I'm pleased to say I learnt from yesterdays mistakes and made enough to put me back in profit for the weekend. It's tempting to look for one trade that can win you back a loss in one go but I avoided the temptation and just took every penny I could.
I've said it many times before and I stick by opinion that no driver should be much shorter than evens before a race. Maybe on the odd occasion such as when Schumacher had won a number of races in a row and nobody could touch Ferrari it could be justified - but not in the current situation where the teams are close and the current safety car rules can change a race. I had a lay on Lewis @ 1.39 for a number of reasons - Ferrari I thought would have the better race pace, Heikki may have more fuel if Ferrari didn't have the pace and in yesterdays GP2 race the pole sitter got swamped into the first corner. Thinking about I maybe should have backed Massa to lead 1st lap @ 30+ but then hindsight is a great thing.
I greened up after the first round of stops as it looked like it would be close for the second stops. I needn't have done it though because a puncture for Lewis put an end to his race win hopes and it was Massa's for the taking. I feel sorry for Massa because he drove a great race and deserved a win but it was his engine failure which further increased my winnings. After everyone's pitted for the final time I will sometimes make a small lay if the odds are under 1.1. The small lay has little impact on my overall book so if doesn't come off I hardly notice it, but occasionally it will pay off with a nice return.
I traded 5 of the markets today and made a profit from all of them so it's put me in a good mood for the break that's now coming up. I mainly have Timo Glock to thank for this who put in a great performance all weekend and made me profits on points and podium places.
As for the this season's drivers championship it seems like nobody wants to win it! A couple of weeks ago I said Lewis looked like he would go on to claim it but between him, Massa and Kimi or wouldn't like to say who has the best chance now.
With the 3 week break I will also have a break from this section of my blog so don't expect many updates (if any at all). I may do a kind of season review post from a betting perspective but it all depends on how much spare time I can find.
I'm now going to find some value in football, if there is such a thing.
God dam it! How did I throw that away. It’s only a small loss but it’s still annoying seeing as I had a green book before the start of qualy.
I don’t know how Lewis is all of a sudden so much quicker than everyone else. I know he was quick before but never was the gap to everyone else so big. One possible reason is the competition. Kimi may as well clear his desk and retire now. We didn’t see Massa’s final lap but it was poor (maybe traffic) and I hope Heikki has more fuel otherwise he should not be that much slower than Lewis. As for BMW they seem to have decided this year is over and are putting there energy into KERS for 2009. Toyota…. you spineless fools! You had the pace to get pole but it looks like you screwed that up by taking the safe option of reasonable fuel levels. Nobody wants to take a chance these days.
Were to go from here then? I had backed Heikki for race win and if he does have more fuel then he’s in with a good chance. It’s looked like he can manage the tyres better of the long runs so he just needs to stick with Lewis and then jump him in the pits if he does have more fuel.
I know the reason for my loss – the title of my last post says it all. I had no real idea of what my plan was. I could have taken good greens in-play on Massa when I backed him at 9.6 (later traded in the 3’s) but his final runs didn’t work out. There were a number of positions (such as Trulli @ 240 later traded 40’s) I was in but just let them run because my overall liability was small. If I has concentrated on one position, knowing what conditions I would exit under etc I would have easily made a profit and that the annoying part.
I’m out tonight so I will have to look at things in the morning.
I don’t know how Lewis is all of a sudden so much quicker than everyone else. I know he was quick before but never was the gap to everyone else so big. One possible reason is the competition. Kimi may as well clear his desk and retire now. We didn’t see Massa’s final lap but it was poor (maybe traffic) and I hope Heikki has more fuel otherwise he should not be that much slower than Lewis. As for BMW they seem to have decided this year is over and are putting there energy into KERS for 2009. Toyota…. you spineless fools! You had the pace to get pole but it looks like you screwed that up by taking the safe option of reasonable fuel levels. Nobody wants to take a chance these days.
Were to go from here then? I had backed Heikki for race win and if he does have more fuel then he’s in with a good chance. It’s looked like he can manage the tyres better of the long runs so he just needs to stick with Lewis and then jump him in the pits if he does have more fuel.
I know the reason for my loss – the title of my last post says it all. I had no real idea of what my plan was. I could have taken good greens in-play on Massa when I backed him at 9.6 (later traded in the 3’s) but his final runs didn’t work out. There were a number of positions (such as Trulli @ 240 later traded 40’s) I was in but just let them run because my overall liability was small. If I has concentrated on one position, knowing what conditions I would exit under etc I would have easily made a profit and that the annoying part.
I’m out tonight so I will have to look at things in the morning.
Just a quick post to say I have taken a green before qualy. I have no real strong feeling that either Heikki or Massa will get pole after seeing Q3 so the best thing to do for the moment is hold my position on a green book.
As we go into qualy the odds tend to be far more volatile and if I see anything good I may make a change. If it looks like Hamilton will get pole I will just leave it as things are. His odds have now come down to 1.8 and this time they are probably justified to be that low – but there’s no way they should have been that a week before the event. If they get much lower (say 1.5 during Q1/2) I will take a lay position on him. There’s a big threat of some low fuel attempts which would make that price worth laying. I’ve still not given up on Massa and if there’s a good price on him during Q1/2 I will take another back position.
As for the practice session I made a small loss on P1 & P2. I didn’t do the usual midfield dutch on P3 because of late the top teams have increased their pace so much, even a low fuel run from the midfield can’t beat them. It’s funny because now bet365 have tightened up on these runners they’re offering higher odds on the top drivers. The tables have turned and now you can get 4’s and 6’s on Lewis, Massa Kimi etc. Unfortunately I went for Massa who managed to get 2nd so another loss made there. The total loss on practice is almost equal to my current green on qualy so things aren’t too bad.
As we go into qualy the odds tend to be far more volatile and if I see anything good I may make a change. If it looks like Hamilton will get pole I will just leave it as things are. His odds have now come down to 1.8 and this time they are probably justified to be that low – but there’s no way they should have been that a week before the event. If they get much lower (say 1.5 during Q1/2) I will take a lay position on him. There’s a big threat of some low fuel attempts which would make that price worth laying. I’ve still not given up on Massa and if there’s a good price on him during Q1/2 I will take another back position.
As for the practice session I made a small loss on P1 & P2. I didn’t do the usual midfield dutch on P3 because of late the top teams have increased their pace so much, even a low fuel run from the midfield can’t beat them. It’s funny because now bet365 have tightened up on these runners they’re offering higher odds on the top drivers. The tables have turned and now you can get 4’s and 6’s on Lewis, Massa Kimi etc. Unfortunately I went for Massa who managed to get 2nd so another loss made there. The total loss on practice is almost equal to my current green on qualy so things aren’t too bad.
Can I trade my Massa for your Heikki?
0 Comments Published by John on Friday, August 1, 2008 at 8:49 PM.
So far what we have seen is almost a repeat of last year. Take a look at last years practice time sheets compared to this years and you will see a lot of similarities.
I have therefore seen enough though to believe McLaren may just have a bit too much 1 lap pace for Ferrari to get pole. Massa’s odds dropped to 3.5 but I expected him to go well in P2 so didn’t trade out. He was slightly off the pace in the afternoon and I ended up trading out in the mid 4’s. A nice green still and I haven’t given up hope on him yet. I will see how the track rubbers in tomorrow (and if there was any overnight rain) before possibly jumping back on the Massa queue.
Another lay on Lewis for pole @ 1.86, means that’s twice I’ve got low odds and traded back out when the market settled, this time @ 2.06. There was no luck here as it was all down to knowing my market and being able to price up the runners. I’ve been reading Graeme’s blog over at ‘The Experiment’ as he’s been wondering if his knowledge sometimes hinders his trading. Sometimes it probably does but at the end of the day I don’t think there’s any substitute for knowing your stuff. As long as you are disciplined with your trading the knowledge can only be a help. It’s when you get big headed and don’t trade out when things go against you that it comes back to bite you in the arse. (And yes I have been bitten in the arse a few times, as have most of us Betfair users I imagine). My edge is my knowledge combined with the trading – neither would bring much success on their own (unless I was lucky), but together they make a great team!
The trading I have done so far has put me in a good position but I’ve not won a penny yet. I have now taken a position on Heikki and have achieved average odds of 28. He’s currently trading @9.8 so I could take a green but the liability is small thanks to the early trading and I think he’s a real threat. From what I gather he ran a new aero package in P1 which Lewis didn’t and he looked very strong. Lewis then used this package in the afternoon to set the fastest time in that session, however in Heikki’s own words “I was able to find a particularly good balance and focused on conserving the tyres rather than going for a laptime [in P2]”.
As for the race it will depend on whether a Ferrari can get on the front row. If they can I think they would have the long distance pace to beat the McLaren around this track. As for which Ferrari it’s hard to tell at the moment but I’m not sure Kimi has the desire anymore – I hope he proves me wrong.
Glock looked impressive in P1 so I snapped up the 4.2 for points finish that was on offer. Williams hyped themselves up for this weekend but they’re yet to show much promise. As for Piquet setting the 2nd fastest time in P2 – If you looked at last years practice times Heikki also made 2nd in P2 with Renault……he also failed to make it into Q3. I’m hoping it was just a poor car and he can do a lot better this year!
I have therefore seen enough though to believe McLaren may just have a bit too much 1 lap pace for Ferrari to get pole. Massa’s odds dropped to 3.5 but I expected him to go well in P2 so didn’t trade out. He was slightly off the pace in the afternoon and I ended up trading out in the mid 4’s. A nice green still and I haven’t given up hope on him yet. I will see how the track rubbers in tomorrow (and if there was any overnight rain) before possibly jumping back on the Massa queue.
Another lay on Lewis for pole @ 1.86, means that’s twice I’ve got low odds and traded back out when the market settled, this time @ 2.06. There was no luck here as it was all down to knowing my market and being able to price up the runners. I’ve been reading Graeme’s blog over at ‘The Experiment’ as he’s been wondering if his knowledge sometimes hinders his trading. Sometimes it probably does but at the end of the day I don’t think there’s any substitute for knowing your stuff. As long as you are disciplined with your trading the knowledge can only be a help. It’s when you get big headed and don’t trade out when things go against you that it comes back to bite you in the arse. (And yes I have been bitten in the arse a few times, as have most of us Betfair users I imagine). My edge is my knowledge combined with the trading – neither would bring much success on their own (unless I was lucky), but together they make a great team!
The trading I have done so far has put me in a good position but I’ve not won a penny yet. I have now taken a position on Heikki and have achieved average odds of 28. He’s currently trading @9.8 so I could take a green but the liability is small thanks to the early trading and I think he’s a real threat. From what I gather he ran a new aero package in P1 which Lewis didn’t and he looked very strong. Lewis then used this package in the afternoon to set the fastest time in that session, however in Heikki’s own words “I was able to find a particularly good balance and focused on conserving the tyres rather than going for a laptime [in P2]”.
As for the race it will depend on whether a Ferrari can get on the front row. If they can I think they would have the long distance pace to beat the McLaren around this track. As for which Ferrari it’s hard to tell at the moment but I’m not sure Kimi has the desire anymore – I hope he proves me wrong.
Glock looked impressive in P1 so I snapped up the 4.2 for points finish that was on offer. Williams hyped themselves up for this weekend but they’re yet to show much promise. As for Piquet setting the 2nd fastest time in P2 – If you looked at last years practice times Heikki also made 2nd in P2 with Renault……he also failed to make it into Q3. I’m hoping it was just a poor car and he can do a lot better this year!
Should Massa be in a Ferrari seat? That’s a hot topic if you look around forums and message boards in the F1 world. Seems to be a lot of people are voicing there opinions and most of it negative for the Brazilian. I’m undecided on his race craft and agree this could be better, but as a far as I’m concerned he’s one of the best qualifiers out there at the moment – a bit like a young Trulli, who with age has also improved what used to be debatable race performances. I’ll let the kids in the forums have their fun because for me it’s the stats which do the talking.
This season’s stats for Massa in qualifying read 6 front rows out of 10 races, with 3 of them being poles. Of the other 4, Silverstone (9th) should be ignored because of a pit error causing him to miss the lap. Canada (6th) is the only real poor show considering the other two were 3rd and 4th.
I don’t have data for this but I remember a few times were Massa had also set the fastest lap in the first round of attempts causing his odds to plummet, only to be piped at the post (I think these were Bahrain and Germany.) That means of the 6 front rows out of 10 races you would have been shown an opportunity to trade out at odds of evens or less.
It’s hard to see past a McLaren pole but with Lewis @ 2.4 there’s no interest for me there. Heikki may be real threat to him in what he described as his best race last season. Never write off the Ferrari’s and Kubica could also pose a threat.
By Wednesday the markets are usually met in middle for the top runners but this time round there seems to be a big divide. Both Massa and Kimi are available to back at 4.5/4.9 and lay at 5.9/6.6 respectively. The bookmakers odds don’t show as much variance so what’s going on? - nobody’s seems to want to trade the Ferrari’s. As I type a total of £6486 has been matched in the Market with £4625 of that on Lewis! The Ferrari drivers are roughly responsible for £400 each and interestingly £750 on Kubica.
I have been matched for 5.6 on Massa to get pole. For me, once again the opportunity is too good to miss. He was quicker the Kimi at this track last year but missed Q3 because somehow Ferrari forgot to fuel his car! I will also keep an eye on Kubica’s performance and fuel loads in practice.
It’s looking like Heidfeld’s odds to reach Q3 are going to be a reasonable price so I will leave this alone, unless they increase beyond 1.4’s in which case I would want to back him.
There’s not much else to look at for now so I will wait to see what Friday practice brings.
This season’s stats for Massa in qualifying read 6 front rows out of 10 races, with 3 of them being poles. Of the other 4, Silverstone (9th) should be ignored because of a pit error causing him to miss the lap. Canada (6th) is the only real poor show considering the other two were 3rd and 4th.
I don’t have data for this but I remember a few times were Massa had also set the fastest lap in the first round of attempts causing his odds to plummet, only to be piped at the post (I think these were Bahrain and Germany.) That means of the 6 front rows out of 10 races you would have been shown an opportunity to trade out at odds of evens or less.
It’s hard to see past a McLaren pole but with Lewis @ 2.4 there’s no interest for me there. Heikki may be real threat to him in what he described as his best race last season. Never write off the Ferrari’s and Kubica could also pose a threat.
By Wednesday the markets are usually met in middle for the top runners but this time round there seems to be a big divide. Both Massa and Kimi are available to back at 4.5/4.9 and lay at 5.9/6.6 respectively. The bookmakers odds don’t show as much variance so what’s going on? - nobody’s seems to want to trade the Ferrari’s. As I type a total of £6486 has been matched in the Market with £4625 of that on Lewis! The Ferrari drivers are roughly responsible for £400 each and interestingly £750 on Kubica.
I have been matched for 5.6 on Massa to get pole. For me, once again the opportunity is too good to miss. He was quicker the Kimi at this track last year but missed Q3 because somehow Ferrari forgot to fuel his car! I will also keep an eye on Kubica’s performance and fuel loads in practice.
It’s looking like Heidfeld’s odds to reach Q3 are going to be a reasonable price so I will leave this alone, unless they increase beyond 1.4’s in which case I would want to back him.
There’s not much else to look at for now so I will wait to see what Friday practice brings.
Last season Betfair opened the Formula One markets on the Tuesday before each race weekend. I would usually place a few optimistic bets in at prices I felt were over/under value but not so much so that they wouldn’t get matched. I’ve been caught out the last 4 races by how early the markets have been opened (sometimes 2 days after the last race) which gives me no time to research and get things prepared (I work full time and this is all done when I get a spare moment). Not wanting to miss out on an opportunity I made sure I was ready this time around and got in early – and it paid off. A lay of Hamilton for pole @ 1.78 got matched. Unfortunately it was only partially matched (£10) but I’m not complaining because it still easy money. Now the market has settled he’s trading at 2.2 – 2.5 range so I will just back him for £10 for a small free bet which gets me off to an easier start. Every £ helps at the end of the day.
Apologies if it was you who backed me @ 1.78, but what the hell were you thinking? It really does make me wonder what some of the users on Betfair are doing. Because the markets opened so early there are no bookies prices available as a reference – maybe this person thought 1.78 was going to be a great price. Having watched these markets for the last 4 years I know, no matter how good someone was at the last race, drivers are very, very rarely priced odds on to get pole – and if they are I would still want to lay them as there would be no value in such a price.
With over 1 week to go until the race wouldn’t it have been better to hold on a bit and wait to see what the market settled at? It seems a bit like desperation – wanting to get in early and make sure you are matched, without even thinking about what odds you are getting. Maybe it was just a new to the sport British fan who just loved Lewis so much he was willing to throw away £10 on a silly bet.
Of course Hamilton may get pole and this punter will win their bet. Which I hope he does because that just means I’m likely to get matched on another equally ludicrous bet in the next race ;-)
For anyone new to betting the first thing you need to understand is value. Read as many books and articles on the subject as you can find until it’s ingrained in your brain. Keep reading and trying to understand it until you begin to have dreams about value odds!!
Sorry to sound like a nagging school teacher here but it’s something which took me ages to understand properly and I never made any long term profits until I did. If you’re starting out with betting don’t place a single bet until you understand the concept.
Apologies if it was you who backed me @ 1.78, but what the hell were you thinking? It really does make me wonder what some of the users on Betfair are doing. Because the markets opened so early there are no bookies prices available as a reference – maybe this person thought 1.78 was going to be a great price. Having watched these markets for the last 4 years I know, no matter how good someone was at the last race, drivers are very, very rarely priced odds on to get pole – and if they are I would still want to lay them as there would be no value in such a price.
With over 1 week to go until the race wouldn’t it have been better to hold on a bit and wait to see what the market settled at? It seems a bit like desperation – wanting to get in early and make sure you are matched, without even thinking about what odds you are getting. Maybe it was just a new to the sport British fan who just loved Lewis so much he was willing to throw away £10 on a silly bet.
Of course Hamilton may get pole and this punter will win their bet. Which I hope he does because that just means I’m likely to get matched on another equally ludicrous bet in the next race ;-)
For anyone new to betting the first thing you need to understand is value. Read as many books and articles on the subject as you can find until it’s ingrained in your brain. Keep reading and trying to understand it until you begin to have dreams about value odds!!
Sorry to sound like a nagging school teacher here but it’s something which took me ages to understand properly and I never made any long term profits until I did. If you’re starting out with betting don’t place a single bet until you understand the concept.